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Housing Market Update Nov 2022 – with best time to buy and sell

Housing Market Update

November 2022

 

  • Key Points
  • Best time to buy and sell a home
  • Pierce/Thurston County Housing Stats
  • Hottest Real Estate Markets & Appreciation Heat Map
  • Interest Rates Forecast & Solutions
  • Top Stories
  • Buyer/Seller Solutions for Todays Crazy Market
  • Summery

 

Key points

  • There is no housing bubble according to experts.
  • Buyers and sellers really need to pay attention. A roaring sellers’ market is likely to return. Leverage your options ahead of everyone else.
  • Interest rates are not anticipated to start dropping until fall of next year.
  • Housing Stats are down across the board except Average sales price
  • Likely won’t reach a buyers’ market but a more balanced market.
  • Sellers will have to be more realistic, and pricing will be critical.
  • Covid caused a huge influx of purchases due to working from home.
  • New construction is down 17% and new starts even lower then pre pandemic anticipated to drop further. Resale market will benefit from this.
  • CoreLogic appreciation gauge is predicting home price appreciation to go from 13.5% to 3.2% nationally. Closer to historic norms.

 

Best time to buy and sell a home historically

I’ve said it for years, sell spring buy summer. Here I have put together an infographic data chart that highlights the best time to buy and sell historically and included my original version from many years ago. Economic norms such as schooling, job transfers, weather, etc will always keep moving markets in spring and summer.

Overall historically best time to

Sell is March – June, April being the sweat spot.

Buy is July -September, August typically being the sweat spot.

 

 

Pierce County Housing Stats

November 21 VS November 22

Active listings are up from 766 to 2188:   +1422 (+185%)  

 Months of Inventory .5 to 3.1: +2.6% (+520%)

Sellers Market 0-3 months, Neutral Market 3-6 Months, Buyers’ Market 6+ months

 

Days on Market are up from 17 to 35: +18 days (+105%)

List Price to Sale Price Ratio – 2.6%

How much more or less a home sold for then its listing price.  For perspective, April 2022 was 105.2%. February 2019 was the last time we went under 100%

Pending sales are down from 1319 to 627: -692 (-52%)

Total # of Sales are down from 1565 to 712: -853 (-54%)

Average Sale price is up from $550k to 580k: +$30k (+5.5%)

 

As you can see from the final chart and as anticipated Prices are not falling rather appreciation is falling. Appreciation was nearing 17% for the last few years.   

 

 

Interest Rates Forecast and Solutions

Interest rates are not anticipated to drop until fall of next year. Though I am skeptical as projected interest rates rarely are on target and given the uncertainties of recession no one can really predict if it will be sooner or later. Thus why we have found solutions until they arrive.

Here are a list of solutions for both buyers and sellers to offset the higher costs of interest rate and take advantage of the current neutral market before the likely intense sellers market returning.  For Specifics contact us or one of our strategic lenders for more details.

  • 3/2/1 Buy down Program. This allows you to pay or negotiate seller pay down the rate a lot for the 1st year, then it goes up more the 2nd year, then lands on its permanent rate the 3rd The catch here is you can refinance anytime so when rates come down you could have been with a lower rate the whole time.

 

  • 40 year loan- reduces payment and also refinance available to offset initial first couple years costs. However you pay more towards interest at first.

Interest rates chart from Freddie Mac

 

 

Top stories.

 

Amazing Buyer/Seller Solutions for Todays Crazy Market

  • Buy before you sell with a guaranty sale.
  • Become a cash buyer through financing
  • Interest rate buy down 3/2/1

Contact us for more info

 

Summery

Here is what is occurring:

  • High interest rates, fears of recession, housing unaffordability as I predicted in 2nd quart 2022 put on the breaks for buyers and seller fears of growing days on market, prices dropping, etc are starting to flood some markets with more inventory then last year. However many sellers are holding off as well maintaining their lower interest rates.
  • Covid broke housing norms as you can see in the charts where prices where out of control hurting everyone. Count this as a healthy correction; for now.
  • Price sales (not listed price adjustments) are still growing despite longer days on market, and list price drops.
  • Sellers: we are not in any type of market you are sued to in the last 2 years. Pricing is crucial in this new market. You must head the advice of pricing professionals and stay away from online/automated valuation model pricing. If you don’t want to be 36-100 days on market then pay a tone in closing costs, rate buy downs, repairs etc. you have to kick off correct. My buyers agent is killing it with sellers.

 

What is anticipated

  • Resale homes will benefit the most this next year as new builds come to a crawl
  • Housing appreciation not values will slow from 17% to 5-8% projected
  • Interest rates not anticipated to come down till fall of next year.

 

Summery

Buyers & Sellers this is prime opportunity while there is supply: law of supply and demand will hold true returning an intense sellers market and further initiate a housing crisis when rates start to fall. We are short 4 million + homes and counting, we have an influx of younger generation needing to buy, young adults stuck at home through pandemic still needing a home of their own, population increasing, builders not keeping up with demand by a long shot and no real site when they will start to pick up again with recession, supply chain, overall costs, etc. and large corporate investors eating up all the inventory. Fixed interest rates cant change but housing prices will.. you have control over refinancing and programs to make things more affordable and refinance later. But you cant control the intends bidding wars when they return.  We obviously cant predict the future and there is absolute uncertainty in all markets right now but what is certain is supply and demand and you will always need food, shelter and clothing. We have many solutions available. If you want more details on any of this report please do not hesitate to reach out.

 

Happy Thanksgiving and have an amazing new year!

Cyrus Bonnet

 CEO | Broker | Veteran | Est 2011

www.VeteransAgents.com

Cell- 253-343-4910  Office- 253-766-5133

[email protected]

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